polymarket-weather-bot
Unverified ML strategy on Multi by AadiXD200. BotFinder score 18 out of 100.
Autonomous quantitative trading bot for Polymarket weather derivative markets — multi-model ensemble forecasting, Kelly criterion sizing, live CLOB execution
Source: github
BotFinder analysis pending.
polymarket-weather-bot
Polymarket Weather Prediction Bot An autonomous quantitative trading system that identifies and exploits pricing inefficiencies in Polymarket weather derivative markets. The bot ingests multi-model meteorological ensemble forecasts, computes a probability distribution over temperature outcomes, and bets when its model price diverges significantly from the CLOB market price. --- Performance Paper Trading (Simulated fills at real CLOB prices) | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Total trades | 63 resolved positions | | Win rate | 82.5% (52W / 11L) | | Gross P&L | +$806.49 USDC | | Total capital deployed | $2,264.15 USDC | | ROI on deployed capital | +35.6% | | Avg model edge at entry | 20.6 percentage points above market price | | Edge range | 2.5pp – 93pp | | Period | Mar 28 – Apr 3, 2026 (7 days) | Direction breakdown: | Side | Trades | Win Rate | P&L | ROI | |------|--------|----------|-----|-----| | NO | 60 | 83% | +$797.68 | +36.1% | | YES | 3 | 67% | +$8.81 | +17.1% | Top 5 trades: | Market | Entry | Size | P&L | ROI | |--------|-------|------|-----|-----| | Houston NO, Mar 28
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Alerts on changes: coming soon
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Open-source maintainer on GitHub.
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