prediction-market-maker
Unverified Market-making strategy on Multi by octavi42. BotFinder score 18 out of 100.
Market-making strategy that placed #2 in Paradigm's Prediction Market Challenge. 110 iterations, 8 hours.
Source: github
BotFinder analysis pending.
prediction-market-maker
A market-making strategy that placed #2 in Paradigm's Prediction Market Challenge 110 strategy iterations. 8 hours. One hackathon. How It Works • Strategy • Discoveries • Failures • Run It --- Results | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Final Placement | #2 out of all submissions | | Final Score | $41.09 mean edge per simulation | | Strategy Iterations | 110 versions | | Development Time | 8 hours | | Edge Source | ~60% monopoly regime, ~40% normal regime | Final Leaderboard | Rank | Author | Mean Edge | |------|--------|-----------| | #1 | @ryanli | $42.32 | | #2 | @octavicristea | $41.09 | | #3 | @zhimaoliu | $40.81 | | #4 | @onurakpolat | $24.87 | | #5 | @ChinesePowered | $23.90 | What You'll Learn This repo is a complete case study in market making for prediction markets — the mechanics of quoting, adverse selection, inventory risk, and how to size orders. Useful background if you're interested in prediction market microstructure or quantitative trading concepts. - How market makers profit — capturing the spread between uninformed flow and true probability
⚠ No verified equity curve — no track-record source connected.
Drawdown profile
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Verification ledger
How the score has moved
Recalculated at each data collection. Transparency means showing the bad weeks too.
No score history is stored yet — only the current score is shown.
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Alerts on changes: coming soon
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Open-source maintainer on GitHub.
Data-completeness & trust index (not a profitability rating)