Betting and Belief: Prediction Markets and Attribution of Climate Change ======================================================================== John Nay, Martin Van der Linden (previously Dept. of Economics, Vanderbilt University, and now Emory University), and Jonathan Gilligan (Earth and Environmental Sciences and School of Engineering, Vanderbilt University). Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their beliefs about future temperatures based on the profits of other traders in their social network. We simulate two alternative climate futures, in which global temperatures are primarily driven either by carbon dioxide or by solar irradiance. These represent, respectively, the scientific consensus and a hypothesis advanced by prominent skeptics. We conduct sensitivity analyses to determine how a variety of factors describing both the market and the physical climate may affect traders' beli

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